Interactive extreme-value model

Stock-Picker Extremes Model

Thousands of completely unskilled stock pickers make independent random selections. As the population and time horizon grow, someone develops a spectacular record purely by chance.

True skill αi = 0 for every picker; observed performance = luck
Current year
0 / 20
Picker population
2,000
Current leader
#1
Leader wealth
$100.00
Median wealth
$100.00
Leader annualized return
—

Wealth distribution

The right tail contains increasingly impressive records as the population grows.

Current leader versus median

Blue: the current leader’s full history. Orange: population median.

Ready: Press Start to create performance histories with zero skill.